Brazil Corn Market Report

Brazil recorded an all-time high corn output in the 2024–2025 season, exceeding 139 million tonnes across three harvests. The second, or safrinha, crop led the surge with up to 115 million tonnes, well above the previous record of 102 million tonnes set in 2022–2023. Favorable weather, expanded planted area up 6% to 17 million hectares and rising domestic demand, especially from corn ethanol and animal feed, were the main drivers. Mato Grosso, responsible for 40% of national production, achieved a record 55 million tonnes, supported by well-distributed rainfall even for late-planted crops. Paraná, the second-largest producer, also hit a record 70 million tonnes despite early drought and frost challenges. Domestic demand continues to reshape Brazil’s corn market, reaching an estimated 90.5 million tonnes, six million tonnes higher than last season. Corn ethanol production, using over 18 million tonnes of corn, and feed demand of about 60 million tonnes remain key consumption pillars. Strong early-2025 buying pushed prices to their highest since 2022 before easing in mid-year as stocks improved. Exports have weakened despite record supply. Shipments from January to September 2025 totaled under 25 million tonnes, compared to 34 million tonnes over the same period in 2023. Producers favored domestic sales over lower-priced export offers, making Brazil’s export projection of 40 million tonnes unlikely. Looking ahead, Q4 2025 is expected to see stable yet pressured prices amid ample supply and cautious domestic buying. In the medium term, corn ethanol expansion will continue to drive internal demand and shape planting decisions, particularly in the Central-West. Brazil’s corn sector remains strong but increasingly domestically oriented, with the local market now the main influence on production and price trends.

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