December Maize Market Outlook: Premium for Quality, Pressure on Moist Stock

The maize market in the second half of December is showing a clear quality-based bifurcation. While average and high-moisture maize remains under pressure, dry and plant-grade maize continues to command strong premiums. Price behaviour across mandis and processing centres confirms that the market is no longer driven only by arrivals; quality and industrial demand are now the primary price determinants. Central India: Madhya Pradesh In Khargone mandi, arrivals were healthy at nearly 300 vehicles, yet prices varied sharply by quality. Average quality maize: ₹1,400�1,475/quintal Dry maize: ₹1,800�1,810/quintal This wide price gap highlights the growing risk associated with inferior quality produce, while demand for dry maize remains aggressive. At Ratlam, prices declined by around ₹50, settling in the range of ₹1,651�1,901, whereas Dewas and Khandwa registered gains of ₹40�50, maintaining firm upper levels. This divergence again underlines quality-driven trade. Maharashtra In Miraj (Sahyadri Starch), prices corrected by ₹225 to around ₹1,900, largely a technical correction after recent highs rather than a demand slowdown. Other key centres remained firm due to steady plant buying: Sangli: ₹2,125 Sinnar: ₹1,950 (+₹25) Bhambarde: ₹1,970 (+₹10) Mandis such as Jalna and Akot reported wide price bands, clearly reflecting strong preference for better quality lots. Eastern India Eastern markets continue to display strong underlying momentum. At Purnia Gulabbagh mandi: Grade-1 maize: ₹2,180�2,225 Super BD: ₹2,150�2,180 Fresh BD: ₹2,060�2,130 There are no significant bearish signals in this region. Stability at elevated price levels indicates sustained demand and strong market confidence. Gujarat and Saurashtra Prices across Gujarat remain well supported by feed and industrial demand: Gondal: ₹1,755 (+₹50) Jhagadia: ₹1,980 (+₹30) Key Fundamental Support: Ethanol Sector The most significant long-term positive for the maize market is emerging from the ethanol industry. Grain-based distillery capacity has expanded to nearly 100 billion litres annually. Ethanol blending, however, remains capped near 20%. If the government accelerates blending targets, promotes flex-fuel vehicles, and strengthens ethanol infrastructure, maize demand could witness a structural increase. This expectation explains why, despite elevated prices, plant demand remains resilient. Market Outlook Low-quality and high-moisture maize: May face further downside of ₹50�100. Good quality, dry, and plant-grade maize: Limited downside risk. A strong support zone is emerging around ₹1,700�1,750. If current demand conditions persist, a retest of the ₹1,900�2,100 range cannot be ruled out in the coming weeks.

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