Maize Market Strengthens on Ethanol and Export Demand, Upside Potential Up to ₹2300

The maize (corn) market is currently witnessing a balance between heavy supply pressure and gradually strengthening demand, which is helping stabilize prices. On average, mandi prices are hovering around ₹1,771 per quintal. However, in key producing regions like Madhya Pradesh, higher arrivals of the new rabi crop have pushed prices down to nearly ₹1,550 per quintal. In recent weeks, maize prices had rallied from ₹1,780 to ₹2,050 per quintal, indicating the formation of a strong base at lower levels. Although Maharashtra recorded a decline of about ₹50 over the past week, renewed buying by ethanol producers lifted prices again from ₹1,800 to around ₹1,950 per quintal. Rainfall has temporarily disrupted arrivals, but supply is expected to pick up again after April 5. In Bihar, fresh arrivals of the new crop are likely to begin after April 15. Prices in Bihar mandis have already touched ₹2,150 per quintal, while in Madhya Pradesh, warehouse-level rates are currently in the range of ₹1,750–1,900. In northern markets such as Haryana and Punjab, delivered prices are being quoted at around ₹2,250 per quintal for Madhya Pradesh maize and ₹2,350 for Bihar-origin maize. For the current season, India’s maize production is estimated at approximately 43 million tonnes, supported by favorable rainfall, increased acreage, and government incentives. The MSP continues to offer an attractive margin of about 59% to farmers. On the global front, supply remains abundant, with world production estimated at around 1.299 billion tonnes, which is keeping international prices under pressure. However, the demand side is becoming increasingly significant, particularly in India, where the ethanol industry is rapidly expanding maize consumption. Grain-based ethanol capacity is expected to reach 8.58 billion liters, potentially consuming 12.5 to 12.8 million tonnes of maize. At the same time, rising demand for DDGS is tightening availability for the animal feed sector, providing additional support to the market. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices at the global level are also lending support to maize prices. Export demand from Southeast Asia and Bangladesh remains strong, further strengthening market sentiment. Additionally, demand from the poultry feed industry is gradually improving. Overall, in the short term, ₹1,950 per quintal is seen as a strong support level, while prices may move toward ₹2,300 on the higher side. Based on current trade trends, there is potential for a further upside of around ₹100 per quintal.

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