The wheat market is currently witnessing a key debate: why prices continue to remain firm despite record-high government stocks, and whether the market is likely to strengthen further or face pressure in the coming months. As of June 1, 2026, wheat stocks in the central pool had risen to 53.41 million tonnes, the highest level recorded in the past five years. The inventory is nearly double the prescribed buffer norm. Government procurement during the current season has reached a record 35 million tonnes, significantly boosting public reserves. Even with abundant supplies and strong arrivals, wheat prices have shown resilience. Over the past week, rates in several agricultural markets have increased by ₹40�50 per quintal. Wheat is currently trading between ₹2,380 and ₹2,490 per quintal in Uttar Pradesh, ₹2,380 and ₹2,768 per quintal in Rajasthan, and ₹2,400 and ₹2,620 per quintal in Madhya Pradesh. In Delhi�s Lawrence Road market, mill-quality wheat has climbed to as high as ₹2,685 per quintal. Market participants attribute the strength in prices largely to aggressive buying by private players, particularly major flour mills and food-processing companies. Their sustained procurement activity has provided strong support to the market despite the availability of a large crop and higher arrivals. Global market conditions have also contributed to the positive sentiment. Lower export projections from the United States, shrinking wheat inventories in France, and substantial purchases by Algeria have kept international wheat markets firm. According to Jagriti Agro SMS Service, the future direction of the wheat market will depend largely on monsoon performance and the evolving El Ni�o situation. A normal monsoon could limit further gains and, given the sizeable government stocks, may create downward pressure on prices. However, if rainfall remains below expectations or weather-related risks intensify, concerns over the next crop could trigger another round of bullishness in the wheat market.