Cheap rice and maize remain under pressure, chances of sharp rise are low
Last week, the maize market remained under significant pressure because ethanol companies began receiving cheap coarse rice from the government at around ₹2,320 per quintal. With the 40% ethanol blending target, the share of rice in ethanol production increased, which naturally weakened maize demand. Although a slight stability was observed in the market over the past couple of days, prices still fell by ₹20-50 during the week. On Saturday, maize prices were as follows: Delhi-UP ₹1,980, Bihar ₹2,070, Gulab Bagh ₹1,850, Sangli ₹1,975, Tirupati Star Plant Indore ₹1,710, Chhindwara ₹1,600, Gokak ₹1,960, and Dahod ₹1,675 per quintal. Over the past five years, maize production has consistently increased, but consumption has declined, disrupting the supply-demand balance. Compared to last year, consumption is nearly half. Farmers in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Maharashtra are facing a direct loss of around ₹200-250 per quintal this season. Additionally, the government has provided duty relief on the first phase of 500,000 tons of DDGS imports, which cost around ₹27,000 per ton, giving the feed industry a cheaper alternative. This has slowed down maize purchases, and future imports may increase, prompting buyers to pull back while sellers rush to offload stock. The poultry sector, which is a roughly $30 billion industry, is getting relief through alternatives like DDGS and red sorghum, adding further pressure on maize demand. In the ethanol sector, many distilleries are buying only according to their immediate needs. On the international front, by February 10, large funds reduced their net short position by 20,576 contracts to 48,210 contracts, indicating short covering. Meanwhile, shipped and unshipped maize export commitments have reached 60.805 MMT, 31% higher than last year and covering 73% of the annual estimate. After the election period ends in Bangladesh, export demand is expected to pick up, which could provide some relief. For now, the market appears stable around lowe r levels. The scope for a sharp decline is limited, but a strong rally would require robust demand or an export trigger. Traders are advised to exercise their discretion.