The southwest monsoon has entered the Andaman Sea earlier than usual this year. On 16 May 2026, it reached the southern Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, nearly a week ahead of the normal date. After this, the monsoon has progressed into the southern and southeastern parts of the Bay of Bengal as well as some areas of the northern Andaman Sea. According to weather experts, the early arrival of the monsoon in the Andaman Sea does not directly indicate when it will reach Kerala or its overall performance across the country. The monsoon typically reaches Kerala around 1 June, with a possible variation of about seven days. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) does not assess the monsoon’s arrival before 10 May. For the declaration of its onset in Kerala, at least 60% of 14 designated weather stations—Minicoy, Amini Divi, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudlu, and Mangalore—must record rainfall of 2.5 mm or more continuously for two days. Only then is the onset of the monsoon announced in Kerala. Certain other meteorological conditions must also be met for the monsoon to be declared in Kerala. These include active westerly winds up to approximately 12,000 feet between the Equator and 10°N latitude and 55°E to 80°E longitude, wind speeds of 15–20 knots at around 3,000 feet altitude between 5°N and 10°N latitude and 70°E to 80°E longitude, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) below 200 W/m² between 5°N and 10°N latitude and 70°E to 75°E longitude. The strengthening of the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon is responsible for its arrival in Kerala, whereas the early activities in the Andaman Sea are mainly influenced by the Bay of Bengal branch. Low-pressure systems and cyclonic circulations forming in the Bay of Bengal accelerate the monsoon’s progress and trigger rainfall in the Lakshadweep region, Kerala, and coastal Karnataka.