This years monsoon could become a cause for concern for farmers. Private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather has lowered its forecast for the southwest monsoon to 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The agency has put the probability of a drought at 70%. In April, Skymet had forecast the monsoon at 94% of LPA. According to Skymet, the strengthening El Niño and a weak Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could lead to a further increase in the rainfall deficit during the later part of the monsoon season. Rainfall in August is expected to be around 16% below normal, while September could see a deficit of around 20%. As of August 17, cumulative monsoon rainfall across the country was 13% below LPA. Between June 1 and August 17, India received around 518.7 mm of rainfall, compared with the normal rainfall of 596.2 mm for this period. What is the biggest concern for farmers? The immediate impact of inadequate rainfall is on soil moisture. August and September are extremely important months for Kharif crops because plants go through critical stages of growth, flowering and grain formation during this period. If sufficient rainfall is not received during this period, plant growth may slow down, fewer flowers and pods may develop, and grain size and weight may decline. This could directly reduce yield per hectare. 1. Soybean could face increased stress Soybean is one of the major Kharif crops that can be affected by inadequate rainfall. At present, the crop is going through an important phase of vegetative growth and flowering. If soil moisture declines due to a rainfall shortage, plant growth could be affected. A reduction in the number of flowers and pods could lead to a decline in yield per acre. Soybean has been sown on around 12.084 million hectares this year, approximately 176,000 hectares less than last year. Therefore, if the yield per hectare also declines along with the reduction in acreage, total production could face a double pressure. 2. Maize yields could also be affected Adequate moisture is also essential for maize. A rainfall deficit could affect plant growth as well as subsequent stages of production. This year, maize has been sown on around 18.446 million hectares, approximately 367,000 hectares less than last year. If rainfall remains below normal during August and September, farmers may have to depend more heavily on irrigation. The risk of lower production will be greater in areas where irrigation facilities are limited. 3. Rice could face the biggest impact Monsoon rainfall is particularly important for paddy, especially in regions where farmers are heavily dependent on the monsoon for irrigation. This year, rice has been sown on around 37.907 million hectares, which is 1.437 million hectares less than last year. If rainfall remains weak, water availability in paddy fields could be affected. This could impact plant growth and later the grain-filling process, increasing the possibility of lower production Direct impact of low rainfall on farmers income. The first impact of inadequate rainfall could be on production costs and income. When rainfall is insufficient, farmers may need additional irrigation to protect their crops. This can increase expenses on diesel, electricity and water. If crop yields nevertheless decline, the farmer’s profit per acre could fall significantly. Farmers without adequate irrigation facilities face an even greater risk. In such areas, a rainfall deficit can directly affect crop conditions. Possibility of higher crop prices in the market If lower rainfall causes production to decline and reduces the availability of a crop in the market, prices could come under upward pressure. This could affect farmers in two different ways. Farmers whose crops remain healthy may receive better prices because of lower supply, but for farmers whose yields are damaged by inadequate rainfall, higher market prices may not be enough to compensate for their losses. Therefore, simply seeing higher market prices should not be considered a benefit for farmers. The real question will be how much of the crop survives and how much production costs increase. A warning sign for the Rabi season as well The impact of a weak monsoon may not be limited to the Kharif season. If continued rainfall shortages prevent adequate replenishment of soil moisture, reservoirs and groundwater, the effects could extend to the upcoming Rabi crops. Adequate moisture in the soil is particularly important for the sowing and early growth of wheat, gram, mustard and other Rabi crops. If water availability remains weak by the end of the Kharif season, farmers may need additional irrigation for Rabi sowing and early crop development. This could raise farmers costs during the Rabi season as well. Sowing figures are already sending signals The area under cultivation of three major crops is lower this year compared with last year: •Rice: 37.907 million hectares — around 3.65% decline •Maize: 18.446 million hectares — around 1.95% decline •Soybean: 12.084 million hectares — around 1.44% decline This means that if rainfall declines further, the risk will not be limited to the smaller cultivated area. The combination of lower acreage + lower yield per hectare could have a much larger impact on total production. The coming weeks are crucial for farmers The most important point is that the rainfall deficit should not be assessed solely on the basis of the countrywide average. Regional rainfall, soil moisture, irrigation availability and the current condition of crops will determine the actual extent of damage. Where irrigation facilities are available, farmers may be able to mitigate the impact of low rainfall to some extent. However, the risk will be higher in areas dependent on rain-fed agriculture. If the monsoon remains weak during August and September, its impact could be visible at three levels—first in the fields, then in farmers’ pockets, and finally in the market. Low soil moisture could affect the productivity of soybean, maize and rice. Falling production and rising irrigation costs could put pressure on farmers’ incomes. At the same time, reduced availability in the market could push up prices of some agricultural commodities, creating a risk of higher food inflation. The biggest concern is that if the rainfall deficit also leaves reservoirs and soil moisture inadequately replenished, its impact could extend into the next Rabi season, particularly wheat production. The coming weeks will therefore be extremely important not only for Kharif farmers but for the agricultural sector as a whole.